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Alumina market fluctuates and adjusts under controllability
02-09
Judging from the price matching changes of Aladdin (ALD) in the past 24 hours, 2950 yuan ± 20 yuan has become a sensitive position for negotiation in the northern alumina market. Not big.
The increase in the bargaining power of the main buyers is reflected in the decline in the intended purchase price compared with the previous round of transaction prices, and the control of the main sellers is reflected in the controllable range of price reductions. For alumina companies and electrolytic aluminum companies, preventing and limiting excessive market panic and maintaining good liquidity is the fundamental purpose of real companies. It is expected that transactions in the northern market will mainly appear around 2,950 yuan.
The recent alumina price has a downward trend, and it is a controllable downward trend, mainly based on several changes: first, the aluminum price has been adjusted for more than two months, and the current price has fallen by more than 1,500 yuan from the current high point; secondly, the absolute supply of alumina Significant increase, the shortage since last year will end at least within the next 100 days; once again, the range of cost changes has weakened, and the node support from cost basically does not exist; finally, the controllability of the market mainly comes from the self-use and long-term supply of major spot pricing companies. There is only guarantee, and the rapid price decline is not accepted. This is an obvious manifestation of human influence.
In the short term, the performance pressure of alumina prices mainly comes from the phased conversion of inventories. Judging from the data of Aladdin (ALD) post-holiday work survey, as of the end of January, the changes in alumina inventory showed signs of shifting to the supply side. On the one hand, the stop of long-distance and short-distance road transportation restricted the overall flow. On the one hand, the railway shipments are normal, and the inventory backlog at the arrival station is relatively obvious. In addition, after the above-mentioned expected factors appeared, the market transactions slowed down and wait-and-see increased.